This indicator tracks the time interval between Bitcoin transactions and represents a macro view of how lengthy a given coin is held earlier than it’s moved. It is named after a now-popular Bitcointalk put up that instructed forum-goers in 2013 to proceed hodling their Bitcoin as an alternative of promoting.
The HODL Wave reveals greater than 3.3 million Bitcoin has not moved in over seven years. That quantity is 17.87% of Bitcoin’s circulating provide—and is price a staggering $160 billion at present market costs.
The unmoved Bitcoin is just not essentially “whales”—people with a big holding of Bitcoin—which are persevering with to carry on to their Bitcoin to promote at higher costs. A lot of Bitcoin have, prior to now years, been misplaced in accidents, deaths, and forgotten passwords.
“Many of those early wallets has acquired Bitcoin at such a low worth, or mined it and both misplaced it, overlook it, or simply can not entry it. Till 2013, Bitcoin was virtually seen as monopoly cash by many who did not have the foresight to see what Bitcoin might change into,” defined Tim Frost, CEO of yield farming device YIELD App, in a observe to Decrypt.
A report final yr by analytics agency Chainalysis pegged the misplaced Bitcoin determine a bit larger—on a barely shorter timeframe—at virtually 3.7 Bitcoin (or 20% of the circulating provide prior to now 5 years). The identical report said that simply 3.5 million Bitcoin was traded “actively” within the open market whereas 11.4 million Bitcoin was held as a “long-term” funding.
Nonetheless, Frost says that there is at all times the off-chance that such Bitcoin are immediately accessed by their homeowners. “These wallets sit as potential hammers that might drop in the marketplace at any second,” he mentioned.
However it’s potential to trace that too. Glassnode has one other indicators known as Coin Days Destroyed that spikes when previous Bitcoin is immediately moved.
As we will see within the chart above, there have been many spikes in late 2018 and through 2019 when very previous cash moved for the primary time in a very long time. There was some heightened exercise in 2021 however nothing on the identical degree.